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news & opinion with no titillating non-news from the major non-news channels.


I am: progressive, not a wild-eyed Progressive; liberal, but shun liberals and Liberals; conservative, but some Conservatives worry me; absolutely NOT a libertarian. I am: an idealist, but no utopian; a pragmatist, but no Machiavellian. I am a realist who dreams.


I welcome all opinions.

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

To win 2008, one must lose 2006:
   Dems must be desperate, or delusional

James Forsyth at TNR argues that losing in the 2006 elections will actually help the Democrats in the 2008 presidential election.

Consider that the GOP has three potential candidates for 2008 - Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Condoleezza Rice - with 50-percent-plus approval ratings from Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike. The Democrats have none. An opponent with these kinds of numbers would be more or less impossible to defeat. But if Republicans maintain their majorities, it becomes far more likely that Democrats will not have to face one of these candidates.
With the religious right feeling confident, Rudy Giuliani ... would probably conclude that his socially liberal views and lifestyle put the nomination out of his reach.
If 2006 is seen as a demonstration of the power of Christian conservatives, [John] McCain will have to continue his assiduous courting of them well into the primary season and under intense media scrutiny. Cozying up to those he once dismissed as "agents of intolerance" won't do much for his straight talk reputation - the key to his appeal to swing voters.
The only scenario under which one can imagine [Condoleezza Rice] getting into the race is if the GOP appears to be in crisis and she is drafted as the electoral savior. If Republicans survive 2006, it is hard to imagine they would decide that circumstances require them to recruit a presidential candidate who has never run for public office.

This is either a desperate PR ploy to marginalize a Republican victory in 2006, or the Democrats still think all they have to do is stand back and let the Republicans self-destruct.

They still don't get it.


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